Analyst Trita Parsi stated that the Trump administration believes it has turned the tide in the Iran game. The US assessment argues that the detour of maritime shipping through the Oman corridor, coupled with reduced global demand for Persian Gulf oil, has diminished the effectiveness of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, the US naval blockade has severely restricted Iran's ability to export oil. From the US perspective, this has been more costly for Iran than for the US. This assessment has altered the strategic equation. Trump now believes he is no longer forced to yield to Iran's demands and can afford the costs. For the first time since the start of the war, the US has concluded that time is on its side. Assuming this assessment is correct, the more important question is how Trump intends to handle this newly acquired leverage. If the US views Iran's predicament as an opportunity to force its surrender rather than a lasting solution through negotiations, the outcome is more likely to be a new war than an end to the conflict. Iran has proven that when faced with the choice between surrender and escalation, it will choose the latter. Therefore, giving Iran the same choice again is unlikely to produce a different result. The only way to translate this unexpected shift in the balance of power into a political victory is through diplomacy. However, historically, the United States has tended to make this very mistake. Whenever US policymakers conclude that time and leverage are on their side, they often see Iran's weakness not as an opportunity for compromise, but rather as a chance to seek its surrender. The danger is that Trump will repeat this mistake. He will mistake leverage for victory, turning a potentially advantageous negotiating position into a continuation of the tragedy in US-Iran relations.

Data from the UK National Grid shows that the Hisham 2-7 nuclear reactors have been restored to grid operation after being shut down.

Hong Kong-listed robotics stocks declined, with RoboSense (02498.HK) falling 10.17%, Yuejiang (02432.HK) down 5.10%, and UBTECH (09880.HK) down 4.23%.

The Finnish Foreign Minister recently stated that Finland is open to France's proposal to extend the nuclear umbrella to the whole of Europe, while emphasizing that this move would not replace the United States' nuclear deterrent force.

The Hang Seng Tech Index fell further to 3%, while the Hang Seng Index is currently down 1.82%; Alibaba (09988.HK) continued its decline, currently down 9.35%.

[Former US Defense Department Official: Sanctions Against Iran Won't Overthrow the Iranian Regime, But Will Severely Damage the Revolutionary Guard] Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Mulroy stated that the new round of sanctions against Iran aims to extend its impact far beyond Iran. He said, "This is what's called secondary sanctions. All countries, institutions, and entities that do business with Iran and have trade relations with it will be sanctioned. This includes other countries and financial institutions that handle Iranian financial transactions." Mulroy stated that Washington is also targeting Iranian infrastructure used to circumvent restrictions: "The US is also taking action against shadow fleets used to smuggle Iranian oil and circumvent sanctions." However, he stated that this strategy has limitations: "These measures will not overthrow the Iranian regime, but will deal a significant blow to it and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, cutting off financial support to the organization." Mulroy linked the push for sanctions to a key US domestic political timeline. He stated, "I think the US chose this option rather than escalating military action before the US midterm elections because war is not particularly popular with the American public or in American public opinion." He added that if Iran attacks any regional allies or US targets, the current standoff "could escalate to the military level."