Craig Shapiro, senior macro strategist and cross-asset trader at Ninja Trader Live: Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh did not reveal much information this week, but he seems quite optimistic about economic growth, mainly due to positive factors in the AI ​​field. Taking into account the decline in oil prices and the resulting lower inflation breakeven point, while I think the threshold for raising interest rates may be higher than the market thinks, the threshold for cutting interest rates is actually much higher than the market thinks. Given Warsh's positive assessment of economic growth,for the Fed to actually cut interest rates, A significant deterioration in the labor market may be required. This is even more important as he also hinted that the balance sheet reduction may take longer. Of course, a single labor data point is not enough to constitute a trend, but if evidence starts to mount that the labor market is slowing, and at the same time the timeline for the Fed to provide policy easing is stretched (especially with inflation remaining high), then I suspect this will create an environment unfavorable for risk assets. In this environment, it will become increasingly difficult to rotate from AI concept stocks to riskier cyclical stocks or small-cap stocks, etc. Investors may just lean toward defensive sectors and perhaps gold.

British Maritime Transport Agency: Received a report of an incident 30 nautical miles southwest of Hodeidah, Yemen. A cargo ship has triggered a distress alert, saying it was being attacked by unknown armed assailants.

OPEC+ source: OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase its oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August.

According to the British "Financial Times": Uber has no longer plans to launch services in 5 of the 7 countries it originally planned to expand this year, including Austria, Norway and Greece.

US President Trump: We will never let the United States decline.

According to the annual military cooperation plan, the Chinese and Russian militaries will hold the "Maritime Joint-2026" joint exercise in Qingdao, China and nearby sea and airspace. The Russian fleet participating in the exercise arrived at a military port in Qingdao on the 5th, and the troops from both parties participating in the exercise were assembled.