News

A Reuters poll shows that more than two-thirds of forecasters expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates at least once more after September, with the cash rate expected to reach 3.00% or higher by the end of the year.

A Reuters poll showed that 27 out of 31 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2.

Goldman Sachs strategist Rich Privorotsky believes that oil prices may be more important than the Jackson Hole symposium. In other words, Goldman Sachs believes the market may be overemphasizing Warsh's speech while underestimating the impact of oil prices on inflation and financial markets. Goldman Sachs argues that if oil prices fall: oil prices ↓ → inflation expectations ↓ → consumer pressure ↓ → long-term US Treasury yields ↓ → equity valuation pressure ↓ → risk assets benefit. Therefore, oil prices may be more important than Warsh's speech itself. Privorotsky believes that unless Warsh significantly deviates from his previous policy stance, Jackson Hole itself may not pose a "major event risk."

South Korea's National Security Advisor: South Korea is seeking to strengthen cooperation with the United States on current issues including investment, Coupang, and national security.

According to Nikkei Asia: South Korea's Ministry of National Defense announced that Japan, South Korea, and the United States will hold the annual "Freedom Blade" trilateral defense exercise from September 7 to 11 in waters near Jeju Island in southern South Korea.

JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Workday from $190 to $225.

NI225 turned positive, with an intraday increase of 1.00%.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Enhancing international competitiveness will strengthen the credibility of the yen.

Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach offered a clear core assessment of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech: Don't expect Warsh to provide much short-term interest rate guidance in this speech, because Warsh has repeatedly stated that the Fed should reduce communication and forward guidance. Therefore, Morgan Stanley believes that Warsh is unlikely to focus on: what to do at the September meeting, what the December interest rate will be, how many times to cut or raise rates this year, or short-term balance sheet policy. However, they believe Warsh may use the Jackson Hole platform to begin discussing several longer-term "big issues": ① the Fed's balance sheet ② the inflation framework ③ the Fed's communication style ④ AI and productivity ⑤ the quality of U.S. economic data. These correspond precisely to the working groups Warsh previously established. Therefore, Morgan Stanley's core prediction can be summarized as: This may not be a speech about "whether or not to cut rates in September," but rather Warsh's first relatively systematic explanation of the direction he wants to take the Fed.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Economic and financial management is not aimed at foreign exchange trading.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The joint US-Japan foreign exchange statement is of great significance.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Exchange rates are determined by a variety of factors.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is determined to boost the economy and competitiveness, therefore the credibility of the yen will increase.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: I will discuss the global economic and international financial situation with my counterparts from other countries at the G20 meeting.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: Will attend the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Asheville, North Carolina.

Moscow says drones attacked oil product warehouses and apartment buildings in Sevastopol, which is under Russian control.

The United States is blocking the U.S. Postal Service from enforcing key Trump-backed rules restricting mail-in voting.

The yield on Japan's 5-year government bond rose 2.5 basis points to 1.16%.

Hong Kong stocks opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.61% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.85%; Bilibili (09626.HK) opened 1.77% higher after its earnings report.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSI) opened down 155.28 points, or 0.61%, at 25410.46 on Friday, August 28th; the Hang Seng Tech Index opened down 39.31 points, or 0.85%, at 4580.98 on Friday, August 28th; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index opened down 64.6 points, or 0.76%, at 8425.71 on Friday, August 28th; and the Hang Seng Red Chip Index opened down 2.11 points, or 0.05%, at 4228.33 on Friday, August 28th.