News

1. November 2024 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting due to cooling inflation and a weakening job market. 2. November 2022 Midterm Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting due to severe inflation following the pandemic. 3. November 2018 Midterm Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to inflationary pressures and continued economic expansion. 4. November 2008 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting due to emergency easing during the financial crisis. 5. November 2004 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to interest rate normalization following the dot-com bubble. 6. November 1998 Midterm Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to financial pressures caused by the Russian debt crisis. 7. November 1992 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting due to a weak economy and the need to stimulate growth. 8. November 1984 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to an unstable economic recovery. 9. November 1980 Presidential Election: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting to combat severe double-digit inflation. 10. November 1978 Midterm Elections: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting due to rising inflationary pressures.

**Resolution Statement** 1. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to press the "pause button" on interest rate hikes. If it chooses to raise rates, it would be another rare pre-election policy move. 2. Whether the vote is unanimous (last time it was 12-0) is uncertain. This meeting may see 2 to 3 dissenting votes on a rate hike, with Logan and Hamak being the most likely to support it. 3. The policy statement is expected to remain brief and restrained, emphasizing data dependence. 4. A policy statement focusing on financial stability may be seen as dovish, while heightened concerns about inflation and energy price spillovers may be seen as hawkish. 5. Whether the wording of the statement is adjusted is also important. If it retains the phrase "returning to the target in a timely manner" or further emphasizes "acting as necessary," it suggests that room for tightening remains. Warsh Press Conference 1. Warsh's press conference is expected to maintain a concise and pragmatic style, offering no clear forward guidance and focusing on an objective presentation of the current situation. 2. Inflation data has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months. Will Warsh reiterate that inflation is too high and that a "faster pace" is needed to bring it back to 2%? 3. How will Warsh explain the decision to hold rates steady in October while maintaining flexibility for policy action in December? 4. The time Warsh allocates to discussing inflation and financial conditions may influence market interpretation. 5. Warsh may be asked to explain what the high and recent decline in US Treasury yields signals. 6. Warsh may be asked to analyze the stock market sell-off triggered by artificial intelligence and how to deal with potential bubbles. 7. Warsh may be asked how the shifting power in Congress after the midterm elections will affect the Federal Reserve's decisions. 8. Share the latest progress on the Federal Reserve's working group reform. 9. The financial security risks posed by uncontrolled artificial intelligence.

U.S. banking regulators have warned hundreds of people about potential layoffs.

Reasons for supporting a rate hike: 1. Inflation data remains high—September's high CPI and PPI data highlight that progress in reducing inflation has been slow for the second consecutive year. 2. Lagging action has costs—Given the market's widespread expectation of a December rate hike, hawks may argue that waiting another six weeks, considering the costs of delayed action, is not beneficial. 3. Interest rates are not restrictive enough—Hawks will also argue that current policy has not yet reached a "restrictive" level, which is exactly what is needed. Reasons for holding off: 1. Diversifying rate hikes manageable risks—If policymakers still believe that two or three more rate hikes are needed, then spreading out the remaining rate hikes will not be costly. Former Fed official Kaplan pointed out that acting six weeks later carries manageable risks. 2. Consecutive rate hikes are misleading—consecutive rate hikes could send the signal that the rate hike cycle is happening faster than policymakers expect. 3. Pre-election action is rare—previous officials have hinted at no rush to act, and Warsh's silence has fueled market expectations of maintaining current interest rates; a sudden rate hike on the eve of the election would undoubtedly trigger market turmoil. The Fed has never raised rates unexpectedly before an election.

Market news: Anthropic plans to conduct its UK share offering through RetailBook.

Apple (AAPL.O): The new MacBook Pro features a dynamic island design.

Apple (AAPL.O): The new MacBook Pro can last up to 24 hours on a single charge.

Apple (AAPL.O): MacBook Pro is available for pre-order starting today and will be available for purchase starting November 6 (Friday).

Apple (AAPL.O): The 14-inch MacBook Pro with the M5 Pro chip starts at $2,899; the 16-inch model starts at $3,399.

Apple (AAPL.O): The 14-inch MacBook Pro with the M5 Max chip starts at $4,499; the 16-inch model starts at $4,799.

Google (GOOG.O): It is proceeding with the release of the Gemini 4 Carbon in a cautious manner and is actively participating in the U.S. government’s voluntary process for testing models before their release.

Apple (AAPL.O): The touchscreen MacBook Pro can be equipped with M5 Pro and M5 Max chips.

Apple (AAPL.O): The new MacBook Pro features a thinner and lighter design.

Alphabet (GOOG.O) rose to an intraday high and is currently up 1.7%.

Apple (AAPL.O) has released a new MacBook Pro with a touchscreen.

Microsoft (MSFT.O): Offers Copilot Harness through Microsoft Foundry.

Fitch Ratings: Some frontier markets are under pressure due to high oil prices, but others are benefiting.

Airbus reported third-quarter revenue of €17.47 billion, exceeding market expectations of €18.09 billion.

The German DAX 30 index closed up 107.14 points, or 0.42%, at 25,697.91 on Wednesday, October 28; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 13.79 points, or 0.13%, at 10,700.33 on Wednesday, October 28; the FCHI index closed down 0.18 points, or 0.00%, at 7,886.96 on Wednesday, October 28; the Eurozone... The Stoxx 50 index closed up 1.86 points, or 0.03%, at 6166.55 on Wednesday, October 28; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed down 278.48 points, or 1.45%, at 18882.12 on Wednesday, October 28; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 191.55 points, or 0.39%, at 49819.50 on Wednesday, October 28.

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Russia can only benefit from diesel exports if the war ends.