News

Traders: The Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to support the rupee.

JPMorgan Chase has moved its forecast for the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike forward from October to September, while adding a December hike to its projections. It has also raised its year-end 2026 policy rate forecast to 1.5%. If the government's fiscal stance remains largely unchanged, JPMorgan expects further rate hikes in April, July, and December of 2027, bringing the year-end policy rate to 2.25%. The market has already largely priced in a September hike; if the Bank of Japan chooses to postpone it, it could increase market volatility. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's underlying inflation gauge has risen to the mid-2% range, and signals of fiscal expansion have reinforced concerns that the central bank is "lagging behind the curve," while the current policy rate remains relatively low compared to economic fundamentals. This suggests that Japan's monetary normalization may shift from a gradual path to a more immediate pace of rate hikes.

Romania's Ministry of Defense: A drone crashed into Romanian territory during Russia's attack on neighboring Ukraine.

JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Estée Lauder from $94 to $112.

Goldman Sachs' trading desk points out that the internal structure of the US stock momentum factor is undergoing significant changes. The report states that the overlap between 12-month winners and 3-month winners has fallen to a multi-year low, while the overlap between 12-month winners and 3-month losers is nearing a high level, causing the 3-month momentum portfolio to begin deviating significantly from the 12-month momentum portfolio. This change is already reflected in sector weighting. Software currently has the largest weighting on the 3-month momentum bullish side and also the largest weighting on the 12-month momentum bearish side. On the same trading day, semiconductors fell by about 6.5%, while software rose by about 1%, indicating that market sentiment regarding "who the new winners are" within the technology sector is changing.

According to Al Arabiya TV, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee stated that he does not believe the Mecca Defense Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan will undermine regional stability. He pointed out that the three countries believe strengthening security cooperation is beneficial and "do not appear to have any intention of provoking any conflict."

The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 4.2-magnitude earthquake in Chiapas, Mexico.

According to Reuters, shipping data in the Strait of Hormuz shows that the geopolitical stalemate between the United States and Iran has not improved.

Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle stocks rose, with NIO-SW (09866.HK) and Li Auto (02015.HK) up more than 5%, XPeng Group (09868.HK) up 3.7%, Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) up 3.6%, and Leapmotor (09863.HK) up 3.2%.

The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds fell 9.5 basis points to 4.055%.

In its review of the previous day's tech stock pullback, JPMorgan Chase suggested that the market attempted to attribute the decline to rising long-term yields and AI funding pressures. However, the trading floor observed a low-volume, catalyst-lacking momentum reversal following earnings season. Stock traders described the day's fund flow activity as only "3/10," noting that while there was some localized risk mitigation in the semiconductor sector, the scale was limited. Furthermore, the team's overall positioning indicator remained at approximately the 40th percentile, indicating a neutral level. Even after the pullback, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF was still about 18% higher than its July low. Therefore, a tactical bullish outlook was maintained, with the view that there was room for further corporate buybacks, retail investors, and systemic funds to increase their positions or leverage.

Australia's part-time employment fell by 32,200 in July, compared to 47,000 in the previous month.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July was 4.5%, compared to a forecast of 4.40% and a previous reading of 4.40%.

Australia's seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate in July was 66.9%, below the expected 66.90% and the previous reading of 67.00%.

Australia's employment fell by 15,800 in July, compared to a forecast of 15,000 and a previous reading of 76,300.

Australia's full-time employment increased by 16,300 in July, compared with 29,300 in the previous month.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSI) opened 284.01 points higher, or 1.11%, at 25779.08 on Thursday, August 20th. The Hang Seng Tech Index opened 79.12 points higher, or 1.69%, at 4761.17 on Thursday, August 20th. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) opened 107.87 points higher, or 1.27%, at 8579.08 on Thursday, August 20th. The Hang Seng Red Chip Index (HSC) opened 50.21 points higher, or 1.21%, at 4203.42 on Thursday, August 20th.

Hong Kong stocks opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.11% and the Tech Index up 1.69%. Biopharmaceutical and gold stocks opened higher, with WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) up 7.5%, Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) up 8.8%, and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) up 6.8%.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be announced in ten minutes.

Polish military: In light of Russia's airstrikes on Ukraine, Poland has launched a preventative military air operation.